A False Target

Statistically there is little chance of me, or anyone else, getting to three figures. As in cricket, though, it’s a target that seems to obsess people. Why is 100 so much better than 99 or 96? Why is it something to aim for? The truth is that it’s pointless unless you reach three figures in good health. There is no point in getting a telegram from the monarch if you are a wreck in a chair. Like most people I want to live as long as possible, but it needs to be on the basis of a high level of QALY. This is the concept of Quality Adjusted Life Years which I first came across in my teaching of prospective medical students at St George’s. In essence, it looks at your overall health and gives you a score. Let’s say you can expect 20 years of life but your health is only half as good as it was. That gives you a QALY of 10 years of life. If you can get your coefficient above 0.75 I would say that every year is worth it. If it slips below 0.50, what’s the point? It’s just sitting in the house probably in pain and not able to get anything out of your life, and that’s just existing. So, if I reach 100, which I won’t, it had better be with a QALY of at least 0.6! The century is as irrelevant in life as it is in cricket because an effective 89 will carry more weight than hanging on for an ineffective 100.